Mercury Rising 鳯女

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Archive for October 30th, 2009

Honduras Coup, Act V, Day Eleven: Deal Or No Deal?

Posted by Phoenix Woman on October 30, 2009

Well, coup lobbyist Lanny Davis‘ good friend (and our current Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton says that it’s all over. Like Quotha, I have my doubts about that. In exchange for having sanctions dropped, Micheletti and his gang aren’t being made to give restitution to the TV and radio stations they plundered, much less to the untold hundreds murdered or wounded by golpistas over the last four months.

UPDATE: And Al Giordano, reading the fine print, points out the little stalling trick the coup leaders will use to get around allowing Zelaya back into office:

But Micheletti’s claim that a Congressional vote to restore Zelaya would require Supreme Court authorization is a flat out lie, according to a source with Zelaya inside his Brazilian Embassy refuge in Tegucigalpa: “That is what the golpistas have put out, but that is NOT the accord… The Supreme Court gives its non-binding opinion to the Congress, but the key is that all of this takes time, time that the golpistas want to keep taking.”

While there is some healthy distrust already over whether Congress will gin up on its end and really vote to restore Zelaya, that probably will be easier to accomplish than many believe. Two words: Pepe Lobo. The National Party candidate for President, Lobo is leading in the polls. He obviously wants very much for the November 29 “elections” to become internationally recognized elections. His party holds 55 of 128 seats in Honduras’ unicameral legislature, just ten short of a majority. There are at least 22 Liberal Party members that have publicly indicated they want Zelaya back as president, plus 11 minor party legislators most of whom are likely to go along with such a deal. Faced with such a patchwork majority, look for most of the 62 Liberal Party members in Congress to fold and go with the flow. The Congressional vote is not likely to prove a stumbling block to implementing this agreement.

The real problem could be the authoritarian Supreme Court. Micheletti’s invention of a non-existent clause in the agreement, one that requires the court’s approval of it, points to where the stalling tactic will come from. This is the same Supreme Court that carried out the coup d’etat on June 28 and has micro-managed the regime’s affairs all summer and fall on a level that would not be appropriate or legal in most countries. Because Honduras’ 1982 Constitution is such a self-conflicted document with many articles that contradict each other, the court has been cherry-picking which laws to discard and which to interpret, often badly.

We’ll see if Lanny Davis’s good friend Secretary Clinton allows the golpistas to get away with running out the clock. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised and see her stop them.

Posted in Honduras, Latin America | 7 Comments »

Friday Guest Cat Blogging

Posted by MEC on October 30, 2009

The lovely Ms. Mia says, “My basket. You get your own.”

fridaycatblogging_mia_103009

Posted in Friday Cat Blogging, guest cats | 6 Comments »

 
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