Breaking bad

This has been a bad week for the markets. The omens for tomorrow look bad, too. Nikkei down (but Shanghai marginally up; Hong Kong on holiday), US futures half a point or so negative as of 11PM Eastern.

From a technical standpoint, the markets are headed for 940 on the S&P, a further 9% correction and a 25% overall drop, corresponding for you lovers of Fibonacci series to a 50% retracements of the path from 666 in March, 2009 to the high this spring around 1250. For chartists, this represents a breaking below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation, one of whom Mark Hulbert quoted as follows:

Earlier this week, [Dow Theorist Richard] Russell wrote that the breaking of the head-and-shoulders formation would have very bearish consequences: “All previous plans, scenarios and strategies will hit a stone wall. Wall Street and public sentiment will turn black-bearish. Consumers will head for the storm cellars, and, once in, they’ll shut the door above them and lock it.”

Not to mention crawl inside the bathtub and cover their head with a durable cooking pot.

Unless, of course, we get good news with employment on Friday, in which case everyone will forget about all the doom and gloom to rush out and buy.

My own bets, hedged of course, are for a downward trend in the near term, with manic rallies and frantic retreats until the election is resolved. At that point, if the Republicans win, we’re in for real trouble, whereas if they get routed, the market might yet live to see another day.

Or, you know, not.

Steve Bell has it right

From The Guardian.

A Nifty Post I’d Forgot About

Can be found right here.

Sample therefrom:

There is indeed a lot of anger at corporations among the right-wing base. But their leaders are experts at channeling that populist anger in other directions – against the government, against the media, against liberals, against people of color, against women, against non-Christians, foreigners, on and on.

And it is possible to win some of those people over to progressive populism. Perhaps not many, but enough to make the effort worthwhile. Not as high a priority as organizing the younger and infrequent voters who are far more deeply progressive into a powerful political force, but still worth doing if the opportunity presents itself.

Yet neither of those things – exploiting anti-corporate resentments among some of the right-wing base for our purposes, or solidifying the great progressive base into a powerful movement – will occur until we all recognize that the 1990s are over, and stop trying to relive its politics.

What I mean by “1990s politics” is the notion that progressives must abandon their own beliefs, desires, wants and needs, and sign on to a neoliberal, pro-corporate agenda that is inimical to them out of a deliberately misstated assessment of “political reality.” 1990s politics was dominated by the notion, embodied in Bill Clinton, that progressive values may be correct, but they are fringe, unrealistic, fanciful, and when held fast, are a threat to incremental change and enables the possibility of a right-wing resurgence.

As we should have learned at the end of the 1990s, and especially during the 2000s, the exact opposite is true: it is neoliberalism and pro-corporate policies that are unrealistic and open the door to a right-wing resurgence. But few people seem interested in learning that lesson.

This cannot be repeated often enough.

G20 Games

Yes, it’s pretty upsetting that the entire civilized world seems to be drinking the Kool-Aid mixed up by Pete Peterson and his bond-market buddies.

Except if you read the fine print, it’s all a scam:

“To be honest, it was more than I expected,” German chancellor Angela Merkel said of the G20′s non-binding pledge to halve budget deficits by 2013 and balance budgets from 2016.

“Non-binding” means no pledge at all. In other words, this was all kabuki intended to quiet the bond markets. There will be stimulus, it just won’t be rolled out with banner announcements.

Rest in Peace, Senator Byrd

The Constitution has lost a great champion.

One Year of the Honduran Dictatorship (Day 161 under Lobo)

To be updated throughout the day.

5 AM, June 28th marks the moment in time when Honduras cast away years of striving to leave behind a history replete with death squads and American manipulation in favor of multi-party democracy. The dictatorship has sown the wind, and reaped the whirlwind.

Events on 6/27
* Protests in Chelsea, MA (via Adrienne)

Events planned for 6/28
* Protests in Madrid (Vos el Soberano via Adrienne)
* Protests in Washington DC (via Adrienne)
* Protests in Minneapolis (via Adrienne)
* Protest by US congressmen (via Adrienne, who reproduces the letter to Hillary)
* Commemoration and concert, San Pedro Sula (Vos el Soberano)
* Protest in New York City, 4PM (DemocracyNow)

Events of the day
* Berta Caceres of the human rights group COPINH detained by police (Defensores en Linea, no direct link). Caceres was placed under protective measures by the OAS. She blames US troops for the harassment she and other associates have suffered.
* Belen Fernandez commemorates the 1-year mark
* Joyce and Sheptak on Hillary Clinton’s amnesia and other cognitive deficiencies as she demands that other nations accept Honduras back into the fold
* Dawn Paley on the Honduran business elite, especially mining
* Quixote Center and other human rights groups visit (6/24-7/1)
* The dictatorship is celebrating its accomplishments with a march (El Lib)
* Amnesty says that the Lobo regime has not demonstrated that it’s serious about ending human rights abuses.
* Tiempo editorializes
* Radio Globo, 10AM Eastern, David Romero and Roni just finished talking about the situation today, which I mostly missed. A woman complained about helicopters buzzing the area. Now a new announcer in the plaza “Merlin, Hilda, Jenny, and someone”. Listing the members of the Alternate Truth Commission. Lots of eminent personalities, among whom is Fausto Milla, a Catholic priest (see RNS for the list).
* DemocracyNow has an interview with Gerardo Torres, a very young journalist. Among the important points: he claims there is definite proof of a US role in the coup and he says that the proven human rights violations under Lobo are nearly as numerous as under Micheletti; also the repression is heavier.
* Via Adrienne, Joseph Shansky has a piece in Upside Down World titled The Coup is not Over
* Via Adrienne, Defensores en Linea reportthat the police equipped with billy clubs and tear gas surrounded a peaceful demonstration in Villas del Sol. Adrienne says the police attacked the demonstrators. First Lady Xiomara Castro was expected to be at the demo, according to Telesur.
* Defensores en Linea also reported that Radio Uno in San Pedro Sula was harassed by police.
* Zelaya reiterated that the US was behind the coup, and said it was planned by the US military in Palmerola air base.
* Brother John has a retrospective and comments on the present. Most pertinent was the comment of a woman who was asked what her concerns were: “Eating”, she said. Brother John says that the resistance needs to focus on helping people meet basic needs. He also remarks that the teachings of early church fathers on inequality, as represented by Charles Avila’s book would have been regarded as radical today. It’s true: the epistles are pretty clear that where Christ is, there is no hoarding of resources.
* COPINH has joined the national strike called by the FNRP (Resistance)
* Peace Reporter has a film retrospective, interviewing Padre Andres Tamayo, who has been exiled (via Hibueras)
* Adrienne has photos from the night of 6/27-28
* Bill Quigley of the Center for Constitutional Rights writes.
* Sarah Stephens of the Center for Democracy in the Americas writes
* Joseph Huff-Hannon writes for The Guardian about the atmosphere of intimidation in Honduras on the eve of the coup:

“A lot of people can’t quite understand a movement that doesn’t revolve around a caudillo,” Gerardo tells me. “This resistance movement is wide and complex. We have feminists working with Christian activists, who are working with labour activists. Zelaya is important, but the popular movement more so. And we think the repression has built up because those who have always run the country are scared, and this is their desperate response. Them with their arms, us with our ideas.”

* Irina Bokova of UNESCO

condemned the killing on 14 June of Honduran journalist Luis Arturo Mondragón Morazán, the owner and director of Channel 19 television station… “It is essential that this murder, like those that preceded it, is subject to a thorough investigation to stem the tide of alarming violence against media that is crippling democracy in Honduras,” said Ms. Bokova. “It is crucial that the bloodshed ends to uphold the universal right to freedom of expression and the right of Honduran citizens to be informed about what is happening in their country,” she added.

* Film from Channel 36 shows large demonstrations. The commentators say that the “camisas blancas” were able to fill the plaza once– by emptying out all the government buildings– while the resistance was able to raise a superior number without forcing people to attend. It really does look like a broad swath of society.
* Rights Action: Rights Action
* Felix Molina on Radio Globo (10PM Eastern) urges callers to bring news of what they did today. A teacher from Choluteca: From 7AM – 1PM, they marched. Another caller, a professor: there will be a strike in Francisco Morazan Tuesday. A caller from Choloma, San Pedro: A beautiful demonstration, from 11-3PM, music and celebretory. In Liberty Plaza, they replaced a statue with “a liberator” (I think this is Zelaya). The police beat a few people when they were thinned out. Caller from Centroamerica Oeste. Caller from Colon: Enthusiastic. Met at the Tocoa Bridge. A caller, Melisa, from COPINH in Jesus y Otoro [?]: we held a vote on the Constitutional Convention. Lots of energy, color, blankets. An excerpt from Notinada. A caller from Tocoa. They took the bridge, went to the Cultural Center at 4PM. A caller from La Paz, Morazan: Everyone who could went out. A caller from Olancho: Happy. We had a demo. A caller from Guaymaca. Felix says they were in the Tegucigalpa plaza from 4AM (not clear whether he was reading an e-mail). A caller from Florida Patoro [?]: a caravan. Tencoa, Santa Barbara. La Ceiba. Felix: Tegucigalpa was owned by the Resistance for most of the day.
* Pro-coup La Tribuna reports that the Resistance “paralyzed traffic at the exits of Choloma, El Progreson, Santa Rita, and Tela for over three hours.” That was about all the coverage the Resistance got in the Honduran media. Even Tiempo put their coverage of the demo below the fold.

The White Shirt March (from Proceso Digital)

A Resistance March in one location (from Tiempo)

Misquote of the day

I’m pretty sure he said “produced”. But the resultant quote is probably more accurate. McClatchy:

“After great debate we have reduced a strong Wall Street reform bill that will change the way our financial services sector is regulated,” said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the legislation’s principle proponent and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.”

Crimes of incorporation

If one were to add up all of the shady business in the US, from spam and adware to pyramid schemes, whether so designated by the courts or not, to corruption, and outright criminal enterprises, I wonder how much of our GDP is off the books. One interesting point: ICE, which we think of as “immigration” does a substantial amount of the investigation which unearths this activity.

Citizens for Tax Justice:

This week, efforts to crack down on offshore tax evasion and illegal flows of money were stymied by the U.S.’s own tax haven, Delaware. The Financial Secrecy Index ranks Delaware as the world’s number one secrecy jurisdiction and this week one of the state’s Senators [Tom Carper, D- E. I. DuPont de Nemours & Co] fought to maintain its ranking.

…

In hearings last year on S. 569, Senator Levin told of a single Utah company that had been engaged in suspicious wire transfers of $150 million. When Immigrations and Custom Enforcement (ICE) investigated, they discovered a web of over 800 companies formed in all 50 states, all controlled by the same Panamanian entities involved “in a massive shell game in which U.S. companies were being used to disguise the movement of funds and mask suspicious activity.” The Utah company had been set up by a Delaware corporation, and the investigation hit a dead end when ICE was unable to discover who the beneficial owners of the corporations actually were.

Or, take the case of Viktor Bout, which Senator Levin described in another hearing last year. Bout, an indicted Russian arms dealer who was the inspiration for the book Merchants of Death (and the Nicholas Cage movie), used Florida, Texas and Delaware companies to carry out his activities, including moving millions in dirty money. In 2008 he was indicted for conspiracy to kill United States nationals, the acquisition and use of anti-aircraft missiles, and providing material support to terrorists.

Sen Carl Levin: “… our 50 states are forming nearly 2 million companies each year and, in virtually all cases, doing so without obtaining the names of the people who will control or benefit from those companies. The end result is that a U.S. company may be associated with an alleged arms trafficker and supporter of terrorism, but we are stymied in finding out, in part because our States allow corporations with hidden owners.”

Unfortunately, in my opinion, we will first need to impeach half of the Supreme Court and several dozen appellate judges before we can invoke the Commerce Clause to clean up this corruption.

Friday Guest Cat Blogging

Princess Mia takes her ease.

That Other Blog For Which I Write…

Is having a fundraiser:

They’re looking to get $50,000 by the end of June, and so far they’re over halfway there!

Fire Dog Lake is an independent source for journalism and advocacy like nowhere else you’ll find online. They’re building an independent movement that owes nothing to any party or corporate interest. They take action and change the course of politics and the country, as they did recently by keeping the public option alive eight months longer than anyone thought they could, and by using the organization mobilized for that fight to successfully push Congress to pass a student-loan-reform bill. Donations fund Marcy’s research, dday’s reporting, and the editors, moderators, and tech nerds; they allow FDL to create the unique mix of posts and actions that make it unique among internet sites.

Check it out and you’ll see what I mean. And feel free to drop in a few shekels, if you’re so moved.