Mercury Rising 鳯女

Politics, life, and other things that matter

Why 2014 Will Be A Great Year

Posted by Phoenix Woman on November 20, 2013

I am laying down a marker, here and now.

At this time next year, a number of allegedly-doomed Democrats will find themselves on Capitol Hill. The Senate will stay in Democratic hands. We probably won’t get the House — probably — but we will make inroads.

Why? Two things: The relative withdrawal of traditional GOP money from the 2014 races (and the corresponding amping-up of Koch Tea Party money), and Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Let’s deal with the first thing first.

The conventional Republican donor groups have been watching with growing alarm at each Republican misstep of the past three years. First off, while 2010 cost the Democrats the House, the Tea Party ensured they would keep the Senate. 2012 saw the Democrats gain a few seats in both chambers: two in the Senate, eight in the House. With all the money that flooded GOP coffers, far better results were expected.

The shutdown of last month, followed by the Democratic sweep of the top offices in the Virginia governor’s race, was apparently the last straw: The conventional big GOP donors are holding back the cash. The problem for them (and the GOP) is, it’s allowing the Kochs to rush into the opening as an AP article notes:

But for now, establishment-minded groups such as Crossroads have been slow to act, and their absence has caught the tea party’s attention. It’s using the vacuum to strengthen its influence while recruiting like-minded candidates.

“Establishment donors are unhappy. They spent a lot of money and didn’t do well,” said Sal Russo, the Tea Party Express political director.

“We’ve been busy,” he added, noting that his organization has interviewed more than 60 candidates this year across 17 states.

The tug of war between such groups isn’t helping Republicans unify around strong candidates.

No kidding. It’s giving Democrats a breathing space and the chance to build up their own warchests before needing to spend out of them in 2014.

And there’s also the problem that the Tea Party crowd can spend till the cows come home and still screw the pooch:

Iowa’s Senate contest should be a promising pickup opportunity for Republicans. But some candidates in the crowded field have little proven campaign experience.

Outside spending can be helpful but doesn’t always mean success.

Americans for Prosperity, a group backed by the conservative billionaire Koch brothers, saturated Iowa mailboxes and telephone lines recently to support conservative city council candidates. But they all lost.

On top of all that is this:

Polls, even the latest WaPo poll, still show that the public don’t want Obamacare repealed, they want it fixed. It’s why they really didn’t like the GOP shutdown, which was all about trying to kill Obamacare. They may not have been crazy about Obamacare, but they really weren’t — and still aren’t — fond of the GOP’s efforts to kill it.

In less than a month, December 13, the budget committee has to submit something to the rest of Congress in order to have a shot at getting their budgetary ducks in a row — and guess what, nothing’s happened nor will it happen, because the Suicide Caucus wants this reprise of their failed shutdown even if Boehner and McConnell don’t.

In less than two months, January 15, just as the legislative branch gets ready to hit the campaign trail, the GOP’s Suicide Caucus is going to do Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo. And that’s going to suck up all the media oxygen for the months of January, February and possibly even March. Congresscritters are going to be staked out like goats to Capitol Hill when they want to be back in their own districts fundraising — and in many cases the Republicans are going to be fighting off challengers backed by their fellow Republicans, the ones in the ultra-safe gerrymandered districts that make up the Suicide Caucus.

And if the Tea Party can win a large enough number of GOP primaries, it’s likely to ensure that the Democrats keep the Senate. It won’t be enough to cough up the House — they’d have to really screw the pooch for that to happen — but there likely will be a few losses.

There you go. That’s my marker.

You read it here first.

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7 Responses to “Why 2014 Will Be A Great Year”

  1. MEC said

    And what the Republicans will learn from the electoral losses is that they need to energize the base more by being even more extreme. We can hope, anyway.

  2. Charles II said

    First, allow me to disagree with MEC. If the base is any more energized, they’re going to mount an armed insurrection. Those things tend to end badly, perhaps especially so for the insurrectionists, but also for the country at large. So, my hope is that the base will discover they love Obamacare, hate cuts to SNAP/Food Stamps, and are willing to tolerate the libtards if it means their bread remains buttered. That’s the history of the Democratic Party from 1865-1979.

    As for the prediction the Dems hold the Senate and make inroads in the House, it could happen. Were it not for the extensive disenfranchisement of minorities, and the increasing desperation of the lower middle and upper lower classes, I’d think that would be the likely outcome. But at this point, my crystal ball is cloudy. Although it seems to be impossible to overestimate the stupidity of the Republicans, huge amounts of money and a sociopathic indifference to consequences can overcome many disadvantages. Case in point, MN-6.

    • MEC said

      I’m not saying the base will become more energized. I’m saying the Republican Party’s reaction to losses in the House and Senate won’t be, “Well, that didn’t didn’t get us the desired outcome, maybe we need to change what we’re doing,” but “We need to do what we’ve been doing, even harder“.

      • MEC is right, so far. From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/20/tea-party_n_4308305.html

        After a string of setbacks and losses, the insurgent Tea Party movement is at a crossroads, between learning to live within the Republican Party or pursuing its fight against those it sees as not conservative enough.

        The choice is an easy one for Tea Party activists, who vow to keep up their campaign to vote out of office those Republican politicians they say have betrayed the tenets of the conservative cause – smaller government and less federal spending and taxes.

        Voters nationally blame October’s partial government shutdown on Republicans, and particularly the Tea Party, which lost elections earlier this month in Virginia and Alabama.

        […]

        A series of interviews with Tea Party activists preparing for 2014, mainly in southern states, produced a clear consensus of the path forward, with possibly unsettling implications for Republican incumbents.

        While mainstream Republicans nationally see the crisis of President Barack Obama’s healthcare overhaul as their ticket to success next November, Tea Party activists see Republican leaders’ decision to end the shutdown in October as a betrayal of the fight over healthcare reform, best met with primary challenges next spring.

        “The Tea Party won the 2010 election for the Republicans,” said Debbie Dooley of the Atlanta Tea Party. “We took a back seat in 2012 and the Republicans lost. We’re not going to make the same mistake in 2014.”

        And the Kochs are funding all of this.

        (Interestingly, the mainstreamers are also wrong if they think running against the ACA is a winner in the general. Poll after poll shows that people want to fix Obamacare, not end it.)

    • As for MN-6, do note that Bachmann announced her decision not to run in 2014 shortly after she squeaked out a win there, in a CD that had just been made ultra-safe for her by the removal of Stillwater and which she was expected to win easily. Scuttlebutt is that she was forced out because Graves, with about a tenth of her cash, nearly toppled her last year. If Bachmann’s CD still had the 2010 boundaries, she would have lost.

  3. Wege said

    I suspect you’re right, but in my gut I believe that a big Democratic win would simply expose ‘our’ party even more so as shills for Wall Street.

    Clearly, one side is much worse than the other, but increasingly I find it to be like the difference between phrenologists and Scientologists. Any good done is purely accidental and probably not intended.

    Btw, I am again free to voice my unfettered opinions as I was fired by my Mattel subsidiary for, literally, thought crimes. An Orwellian experience I will not share with you, not because I signed a piece of paper saying I wouldn’t, but because you don’t need to read an interview with Ronald McDonald to know you don’t want to be a burger flipper and all you need to know about Mattel is that they are an Amazon clone, and that shipping and distribution is now driven by the cult-like beliefs of our MBA culture. None of which is on the ‘democrat’ (as a recent Scott Walker memorandum lower-cased us) agenda.

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