No news today

Julian Borger, The Guardian:

Russian military advisers are manning some of Syria’s more sophisticated air defences – something that would complicate any future US-led intervention, the Guardian has learned.

The advisers have been deployed with new surface-to-air systems and upgrades of old systems, which Moscow has supplied to the Assad regime since the Syrian revolution broke out 21 months ago.

The depth and complexity of Syria’s anti-aircraft defences mean that any direct western campaign, in support of a no-fly zone or in the form of punitive air strikes against the leadership, would be costly, protracted and risky.
…
Air strikes against chemical weapon depots would potentially disperse lethal gases over a vast area, triggering a humanitarian disaster. US and allied special forces have been trained to seize the air bases where the warheads are kept, but it is unclear what the next step would be. It would be physically impossible to fly the hundreds of warheads out of the country, while it would take thousands of troops to guard the arsenal for what could be many months.

Remember when I said that after an extended kabuki, we’d find that the military was still running Egypt?

That was July 13th, 2011, reprising a February 2011 prediction.

David Hearst and Abdel Rahman-Hussein, The Guardian:

Two days before the second round of presidential elections, Egypt’s highest court on Thursday dissolved the Islamist-dominated parliament and ruled that the army-backed candidate could stay in the race, in what was widely seen as a double blow for the Muslim Brotherhood.

The decision was denounced as a coup by opposition leaders of all kinds and many within the Brotherhood, who fear that they will lose much of the political ground they have gained since Hosni Mubarak was ousted 16 months ago.

The decision by the supreme constitutional court – whose judges were appointed by Mubarak – brought into sharp focus the power struggle between the Muslim Brotherhood and the supreme council of the armed forces (Scaf), the military council that took up the reins of power after Mubarak’s fall.

The Brotherhood has now lost its power base in parliament, at the same time as seeing the military-backed candidate, Ahmad Shafiq, the last president to serve under Mubarak, receive a boost.
…
The decision means legislative authority reverts to Scaf.

Let’s just say I don’t think this would happen if SCAF thought the US government would oppose this deed, which effectively blocks Islamists from legally attaining power.

As’ad AbuKhalil comments:

The counter-revolution (US-Israel-Saudi Arabia-Qatar) are overplaying their hands and screwing up big time. The outcome will reverse what they had aimed at. Stay tuned.

It will certainly legitimize the Muslim Brotherhood in the eyes of both liberals and the harder-line Islamists.

Sanity pays a visit to Likud. Will this place Iran war on hold?

Harriet Sherwood, The Guardian:

Israel’s former security chief has censured the country’s “messianic” political leadership for talking up the prospects of a military stike on Iran’s nuclear programme.

In unusually candid comments set to ratchet up tensions over Iran at the top of Israel’s political establishment, Yuval Diskin, who retired as head of the internal intelligence agency Shin Bet last year, said he had “no faith” in the abilities of the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the defence minister, Ehud Barak, to conduct a war.
…
“They are misleading the public on the Iran issue. They tell the public that if Israel acts, Iran won’t have a nuclear bomb. This is misleading. Actually, many experts say that an Israeli attack would accelerate the Iranian nuclear race.”
…
Diskin’s remarks followed a furore over comments made on Wednesday by Israel’s serving military chief, Benny Gantz, which starkly contrasted with Netanyahu’s rhetoric on Iran. Gantz said he did not believe the Iranian leadership was prepared to “go the extra mile” to acquire nuclear weapons because it was “composed of very rational people” who understood the consequences.

For the first time in a long time, I’m starting to feel a glimmer of optimism that there might not be an attack on Iran.

Assange on RT

His first show is up here. For some reason, RT isn’t listing him on the schedule yet. He’s a better interviewer than a lot of the cable news heads, and he doesn’t let the guy off the hook. He could give better context and considering that Hezbollah is a paramilitary/political group deeply enmeshed in the cycle of violence in the Middle East, the questions could be sharper. But it’s a voice you are unlikely to hear anywhere else. Not even al Jazeerah, and probably not Mosaic. (al Jazeera’s tone toward Nasrallah is represented by this opinion piece)

As I keep saying, if we had a competitive media, someone, somewhere would have been broadcasting this guy all along. The whole point of the First Amendment is to ensure that people are making up their minds based on full access to information, not on one-sided presentations. It’s pretty easy to see why Nasrallah is popular. He’s a far more genuine person than, say, Mitt Romney. When Americans greenlight wars hither and yon, do they understand that the people in those countries may like their leaders more than we like ours, and are therefore willing to sacrifice more to resist us than we are to coerce them?

Democracy where? Hersh on US-MEK ties

Amy Goodman: … Although the revelation that the U.S. government directly trained the MEK comes as a surprise, it’s no secret the group has prominent backers across the political spectrum. Despite it’s designation as a “terrorist” organization by the State Department for 15 years, a number of prominent former U.S. officials have been paid to speak in support of the MEK. The bipartisan list includes two former CIA directors, James Woolsey and Porter Goss; former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge; New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani; former Vermont Governor Howard Dean; former Attorney General Michael Mukasey; former FBI Director Louis Freeh; former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton; and former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.

Seymour Hersh:…there’s no question, this sort of training that was going on. It was going on at a place called the Nevada Nuclear Security or National Security Test Site. It’s a former site for World War—post-World War II nuclear testing of weapons, testing of nuclear weapons. And it’s off-limits to people. And it’s—there’s an air base there. God knows what went on there. My own guess is rendition flights also flew into that air base in ’02, ’03. There’s some evidence for it. But certainly, the groups of MEK were flown in secretly by, I presume, the Joint Special Operations Command.

…

We’ve been actively involved, beginning in the Cheney-Bush days, of encouraging insurrection inside Iran—whether it’s aimed at regime change or not isn’t clear; I doubt that—but basically, blowing up things, etc.

…

AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about the bombs that were used in the assassinations?

SEYMOUR HERSH: Well, they’re most interesting bombs. They’re limpet bombs, Marine limpet bombs. They’re designed—they have a special charge, and they’re designed to go inside. … if you want to blow up something underwater, you have to have a charge that explodes inward to cause water to rush in, etc. And these kind of very sophisticated charges have been used by the MEK in the assassinations.

… It’s a very sophisticated shape charge. And there’s no question that some of the best mines in the Navy mine-making business were—some of that information was obviously passed on, whether directly to the MEK or through Israeli assets, or explicitly how. (emphasis added)

The latter point is interesting, because shaped charges are what we accused the Iranian government of giving to Iraqi insurgents.  Is it possible that the information we gave the MEK ended up as quite literal blowback against American troops? That’s one of the possible eventualities of supporting terrorists… just as happened in Afghanistan with the Mujahedeen, which was the precursor to Al Qaida.

Howard Dean has been remarkably reckless in supporting the MEK. Ed Rendell has been shameless. (And, as the interview with Hersh illustrates, Romney has been clueless). But this illustrates the “there aren’t two political parties” problem. Senior figures associated with both parties have supported what the government has designated as a terrorist group. While there’s no evidence that Obama has continued to train the MEK, and there’s no evidence to show that the US is supplying hit lists to it, there’s no question that the US is not dealing with the MEK as it would deal with any other terrorist group. It may be funding it and it is even possible that it is directing its activities.

And, of course, it illustrates the problem with our media, where the government can be engaged in covert warfare, and the only journalists who notice are old school journalists, who won’t be with us forever, from The New Yorker and Democracy Now.

I dare you to watch this

See US policy in action.

Understanding Syria

While understanding what is going on in Syria is probably all but impossible for those of us who do not live in the Middle East/North Africa, there are some good sources to begin with.

Syria is split into multiple factions. The dictator, Asad, is an Alawite, which (according to Robert Mackey of the NYT) is

“an esoteric Islamic sect, the Alawites, whose belief in the divinity of Ali, Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law, is just one of the reasons that they were oppressed as infidels for centuries by other Muslims.”

Mackey then quote Malise Ruthven in the NY Review of Books:

they evolved a highly secretive syncretistic theology containing an amalgam of Neoplatonic, Gnostic, Christian, Muslim, and Zoroastrian elements.
…
Nusayrism could be described as a folk religion that absorbed many of the spiritual and intellectual currents of late antiquity and early Islam, packaged into a body of teachings that placed its followers beyond the boundaries of orthodoxy.
…
Nusayris believe in metempsychosis or transmigration. The souls of the wicked pass into unclean animals such as dogs and pigs, while the souls of the righteous enter human bodies more perfect than their present ones.

According to the BBC, the Alawites are a minority (8-15%) whose power in Syria is a legacy of French colonial rule, which created an Alawite state yclept Latakia. Seventy five percent of Syrians are Sunnis. Ten-fifteen percent are Kurds, there is a significant (10%) Christian minority, 2-3% are Druze, 1% are Ismaili Shia, and presumably some are secular. (So, as you can see, there are 106% – 119-plus% Syrians, a genuinely remarkable achievement.)

The government involves Alawites operating in an alliance with some Sunnis, Kurds and Christians, as well as perhaps Druze. Still, government forces represent a small fraction of the population. Crosscutting this are perhaps more important tribal loyalties, generational conflicts, and regional loyalties. Hassan Hassan in the UAE’s The National (via perhaps the most important American source on Syria, Professor Joshua Landis);

The Egaidat is the largest tribal confederation in Al Jazira, with at least 1.5 million members, and links mainly to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Al Neim is the prominent tribal confederation in Deraa that includes the houses of Zoubi, Rifai and Hariri, and has a strong presence in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and also in the UAE, especially in the Northern Emirates. Al Eniza is another prominent Gulf tribal confederation with members in Al Jazira, Suwaida, Homs, Hama and Aleppo. Al Dhafir tribe has members in Al Jazira, Hama and a few in Deraa, as well as a presence in Saudi Arabia and less so in Kuwait. The Shammar confederation has at least one million members in Syria and is also one of the largest tribes in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Several leaders of the Syrian branches of the tribes continue regular visits to the Gulf states and often meet members of the royal families. A significant number have returned to the Gulf and become naturalised citizens mainly in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Many hold privileged positions in these countries and, as the bloody crackdown in Syria continues, tribal kinships have grown closer, with tribes in Deraa contacting their “cousins” in the Gulf asking for a firm diplomatic and economic position regarding Damascus.

So, in very crude terms, there are interest affiliations something like the chart above.

No one will have to ask, “Is this good for the Jews?”

Chemi Chalev, Haaretz

The owner and publisher of the Atlanta Jewish Times, Andrew Adler, has suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu consider ordering a Mossad hit team to assassinate U.S. President Barack Obama so that his successor will defend Israel against Iran.
…
Abraham Foxman, National Director of the Anti-Defamation League, also blasted Adler on Friday, saying “There is absolutely no excuse, no justification, no rationalization for this kind of rhetoric. It doesn’t even belong in fiction. These are irresponsible and extremist words. It is outrageous and beyond the pale. An apology cannot possibly repair the damage. Irresponsible rhetoric metastasizes into more dangerous rhetoric. The ideas expressed in Mr. Adler’s column reflect some of the extremist rhetoric that unfortunately exists — even in some segments of our community — that maliciously labels President Obama as an ‘enemy of the Jewish people.’ Mr. Adler’s lack of judgment as a publisher, editor and columnist raises serious questions as to whether he’s fit to run a newspaper.”

Anti-Iran hysteria has gone way, way too far.

Even if you are a rock-ribbed conservative like, say, Abe Foxman, it must be obvious that Israel’s long-term ability to survive in the Middle East is dependent on the goodwill of the United States. When the proponents of that state start talking about assassinating the president of their benefactor, it raises the question in the benefactor’s mind of whether that state is a friend or an enemy.

Thing is, the right has become so radicalized that this sort of talk is pretty normal for them. Listen to the Republican debates. Obama is, they say, “dangerous.” The undertone is that his re-election would be intolerable. And if more Americans vote for him than for his opponent? What then?

In Israel, the slanders against Obama for taking the most timid stands against illegal settlements, settlements that most Israelis repudiate, are vitriolic. If there is the slightest criticism of, say, the bombing of civilians as in Operation Cast Lead, the response is outraged. The US is being placed in a position where it cannot assert its own interests or voice its own opinion. David Rubin, an Israeli mayor, for example, wrote:

Obama is a similar case. This president, whose sympathies clearly lie with the Islamic world, is no friend of Israel. His lack of appreciation for the Israeli narrative was obvious long before his victory in 2008. It’s no coincidence that his first major foreign policy speech was given in Cairo, during which he repeatedly proclaimed his deep respect for the religion of Islam. It’s also no coincidence that he bowed to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. Last but not least, it’s no accident that he has chosen not to visit Israel even once during his term.

What Rubin is saying is There. See? He hates us because he talks to Arabs. It’s obvious.

Or from Chaim Levenson of Haaretz:

“The Obama administration is an enemy of the Jews and the worst regime there ever was for the State of Israel,” said Yossi Naim, the head of the Beit Aryeh regional council, at the Ra’ana meeting.

This kind of raw hate has gotten to be normal as the US, not just under Obama but also under Bush, has dragged its feet in agreeing to bomb Iran. So it’s no surprise that a Jewish newspaper publisher would think that it’s alright to discuss the possibility of murder completely openly in the pages of his newspaper.

This is not good for the Jews. It’s not good for anyone.

Stormcrow-recommended, Utwater-endorsed: Martin van Creveld’s The Sword and the Olive (part 1)

Thanks to Stormcrow for having recommended The Sword and the Olive by Martin van Creveld. This portion of the review covers the period through the 1948 war. van Creveld is a Dutch-born immigrant to Israel, presently on the faculty of Hebrew University. He has taught at the US Naval War College. He has two books on the US Army’s required reading list for officers.
________________
The Sword and the Olive by Martin van Creveld is a rare–perhaps the only–scholarly history of Israel written with both sensitivity toward the historical situation of the Jewish diaspora and in-gathering and a clear-eyed realpolitik sense of what is possible in the Middle East. It does not stint on criticism of either Israeli or Arab governments. Focusing on the role of the Israeli Defense Force in the founding and rise of Israel to the status of a regional superpower, The Sword and the Olive provides fulsome detail on the ingenuity and determination of Israel’s military forces, and on the role of political leaders in misdirecting and misusing its energies. Although the book, like many books on the military, is heavy on acronyms, an extensive glossary in the front helps to penetrate the fog.

The book describes the barren, undeveloped state of Palestine in the mid-19th century, lacking a printing press, roads or even a telegraph. With an indigenous population of about 700,000, fewer than 10% of whom were Jews, Palestine was part of Greater Syria (earlier, the Levant and then the Orient), a province of the Ottoman empire.

Beginning in 1880, in response to Russian pogroms, the diaspora in Russia was re-directed to Israel by the Zionist movement. The immigrants settled wastelands such as the malarial swamps of the Esdraelon Valley. The lack of land title, as in other areas of immigration of a population into an indigenous area, was to result in conflict.

Also early on, a strain appeared within the Zionist movement between the desire to reacquire Palestine through legitimate means and the desire to shake off the humiliation of a millennium of persecution and therefore the temptation to rely on force. In Theodore Herzl’s diaries, he discussed the military-to-be in eager, schoolboy-like detail, even though in public he consistently supported the vision of a small military and acquisition of land through purchase. Others in the movement were less conflicted, and avidly sought a “muscular Jewry” modeled on King David, the Maccabeans, and other military heroes of Jewish history and legend.

(click for much more)

Headlines from the land of Christmas

Both from DemocracyNow

Palestinian Activists Arrested Riding Jewish-Only Buses

Six Palestinian activists were arrested in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday after staging an action inspired by the civil rights movement of the United States. The activists
boarded Jewish-only public buses near a Jewish-only settlement to protest segregation under Israeli occupation. They dubbed their effort the “Freedom Rides,” a nod to the 1961 Freedom Riders who rode interstate buses to challenge the Jim Crow laws of the Deep South.

Huria Ziadah: “They will go and try to board the settlers buses to send a message for the world; first thing that the occupation regime is a racial regime on our (Palestinian) land, the second thing is to call for the real work to boycott Israel because all the world recognize that this occupation is illegal on our lands but they help him (the occupation) when they support the buses that transport only settlers on our lands.”

Israeli forces later arrested the activists after stopping the bus near a military checkpoint. A journalist covering the action was also detained.

U.N.: Sharp Rise in Settler Attacks on Palestinians

The Freedom Rides are one of a number of Palestinian civil disobedience actions planned to protest the Israeli occupation. It comes amidst a wave of recent settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Recent U.N. figures show attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians have increased by 40 percent in 2011 compared to 2010, and by over 165 percent compared to 2009. Nearly 10,000 Palestinian-owned trees have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of Palestinian families have been forced to relocate away from ancestral farm lands. Over 90 percent of monitored complaints filed by Palestinians with the Israeli police have been closed without indictment.

For segregated buses, there are simply no words. For the other, there’s Deuteronomy 20:19

When you lay siege to a city for a long time, fighting against it to capture it, do not destroy its trees by putting an ax to them, because you can eat their fruit. Do not cut them down. Are the trees of the field people, that you should besiege them?

The Torah may not have been clear about the wanton destruction of people. It is, at least, clear about the wanton destruction of trees. It is a vicious act, an expression of contempt for the gifts of the Creator. Same for the wanton destruction of people, of course, but the Torah was unfortunately ambiguous on the matter.