Mercury Rising 鳯女

Politics, life, and other things that matter

The Polls

Posted by Phoenix Woman on March 29, 2008

Lotsa polls came out in the past few days.  Here’s a summary after the jump.  

Here’s Rasmussen for 3/29:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with a six-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s Obama 48% Clinton 42%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since stories of his former Pastor became big news (see recent daily results).

Just before the Pastor story broke, Obama had an eight-point advantage over Clinton. His numbers fell dramatically for a few days until the Illinois Senator gave a much publicized speech on race and national unity. Following that speech, Obama’s numbers stabilized and he remained essentially even with Clinton for the past two weeks. With Obama gaining back his lead, it appears that the story about Pastor Wright may not have a lasting impact in the contest for the Democratic nomination. Or, at the very least, that the impact was negated by the furor over Clinton’s recent comments on Bosnia.

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain now enjoys a bigger lead when matched against Hillary Clinton rather than Barack Obama. McCain leads Barack Obama 48% to 43% and leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 40% (see recent daily results). McCain is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s reviews are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable (see recent daily results). Today is the first time Obama’s favorables have returned to the 50% level since his former Pastor became news.


Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 80.1 % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 18.0 %. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 47.0 % chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 39.6 % while Clinton’s prospects are at 11.7 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.

Here’s Gallup for 3/29:

For the second consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report, Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic preferences for the nomination, 50% to 43%.

The latest results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted March 26-28. Obama’s overall lead reflects solid advantages for him on each of the three days.

One Response to “The Polls”

  1. brownbuffalo said

    “McCain is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. . .” How is this possible?! I find figures like this simply shocking. And sad – oh so very, very sad.

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