Polls Are Meaningless, But—
Posted by MEC on June 24, 2008
A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll has to have the McCain campaign worried.
In the national poll of registered voters last weekend, Obama led McCain by 49% to 37%.
When spoiler-wannabe Ralph Nader and apostate Republican Bob Barr are added to the ballot, Obama’s lead over McCain increases: 48% to 33%.
Only 58% of self-identified conservative voters — McCain’s base — said they’ll vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided. By contrast, 79% of self-identified liberal voters said they’ll vote for Obama.
Only 45% of McCain’s supporters are “enthusiastic” about him, and a paltry 13% are “very enthusiastic”; 81% of Obama voters are “enthusiastic”, and almost half are “very enthusiastic”.
The gap between Obama and McCain may reflect a growing gap between the parties. In the random sample of voters, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, 22% as Republicans, and 27% as independents. A majority of 51% have a “positive feeling” about the Democratic Party; only 29% have a positive feeling about the Republican Party.
Those gaps are startling. There’s only one thing the Republicans can do to shift support from Obama to McCain: rev up the smear machine. Buckle your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
6 Responses to “Polls Are Meaningless, But—”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Mercury Rising 鳯女 
Charles II said
The riposte.
I suspect Obamacans need a dose of reality. The Republicans are not going to go down quietly. He still needs a miracle to win, or at least to get to hold office after winning.
jo6pac said
If was 100% It wouldn’t be enough and I don’t like O but will vote for the lessor of evil once again
jo6pac
Newsweek No Longer An Outlier? | Comments from Left Field said
[…] the Ticket, Salon, Reason Magazine, Think Progress, The Corner, TIME.com, Slog, The Swamp, Hot Air, Mercury Rising, Donklephant, Daily Kos, Marc Ambinder, Patterico’s Pontifications, American Street, […]
MEC said
“Republicans are not going to go down quietly.”
Definitely. Expect interference with voter registration drives and existing voter registrations, especially in “battleground” states. Expect a constant deluge of smears. Expect lies, lies, and more lies from the Republicans to make McCain seem palatable.
Phoenix Woman said
The Republicans will of course have tons of help from a media that provides stories like this.
But of course, that’s why we’re here.
MEC said
The article PW linked in her comment says, “McCain’s Iraq advantage could evaporate if violence and chaos resurface and U.S. casualties mount.” But McCain doesn’t have to worry about that, because reporting on the war has taken a nosedive. If the situation deteriorates even more but the American voters don’t learn about it, it won’t affect their opinions.