An ocean of red ink

Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale

We provide new estimates of the federal budget outlook over 10-year and long-term horizons under three sets of assumptions: the Congressional Budget Office baseline, which assumes no changes in current law; an extended policy scenario, in which it is assumed that future Congresses act more or less like previous Congresses in extending expiring provisions; and the Administration budget. Under either the extended policy or the Obama policy scenarios, deficits are high and rising over the second half of the decade, despite the assumption that the economy is in full employment. In 2020, the deficit is projected to be between 5 and 7 percent of GDP and the debt/GDP ratio is projected to exceed 90 percent. These figures only deteriorate with the passage of time. The long-term fiscal gap – the size of the immediate and permanent change in spending or taxes needed to keep the long-term debt/GDP ratio at its current level – is in the range of 6-9 percent of GDP. Further health care reform can be an important part of reducing the fiscal gap, but the problem is far too large to be solved by plausible reductions in health care spending alone. Postponing the onset of a fiscal package will make the problem even harder: even just a 5-year delay in implementation would raise the required fiscal adjustment by about 0.4 percent of GDP, or almost $60 billion per year.

I think they miss some obvious points on why medical spending can be cut substantially and why taxes can be raised (though not a whole lot) and what a large impact on deficits could be made by making the Defense Department a real defense department instead of war department, but Auerbach and Gale is the shizzle, at least as close as Washington gets to it. It is important to start cutting deficits and soon.

A historic milestone

If I am not mistaken, it has been ten years since the last congressman/woman has been arrested for civil disobedience (not counting Cynthia McKinney’s dust-up with the Capitol Police). That drought was ended by Luis Gutierriez, arrested for peaceful protest over immigration reform. (via Dante Atkins, DK)

The last arrests (other than for corruption or irritation with the Capitol Hill Police) that I know of were in the Viecques protests. Could courage be making a comeback?

BTW, read the comments at The Hill. The righties are demanding that Gutierrez be jailed for life for refusing to move when ordered to by the police. It’s a good thing he didn’t spit on someone or call them a “honkie.”

Honduran dictatorship, Day 97

Lots of good stuff from Adrienne.

The four bums of the Resistance (for explanation of title, see here. –Dept. of Obscure References)

First, someone we all know translated the attestation of Oscar Flores on his recent kidnapping. Also from Adrienne, top on the list, Jeremy Kryt on the death squads. Your tax dollars, as spent by Hillary Clinton, at work:

Late in the afternoon on February 3, Vanessa Zepeda, a 28-year-old registered nurse… was forced into an unmarked white sedan by two masked men dressed in fatigues.

A few hours after she was kidnapped, her corpse, still dressed in blue hospital scrubs, was tossed from a moving car in the Loarque neighborhood on the southern side of the city—a well-known stronghold of the resistance movement….

Since the coup last June, a number of union leaders have died under equally mysterious circumstances. Many Hondurans believe the military-backed government to be responsible for these assassinations. Of the 43 members of the FNRP that have been killed, about half have been trade unionists….

nine members of the House of Representatives sent a letter to Hillary Clinton in early March, asking the secretary of state to investigate the violence….

[Professor Dana Frank says] “[These killings] were made to look like common crimes, but these [victims] are all people involved in the Resistance. The military is being very clever,” she says. “They’re not knocking off the top leaders. They know that if that happened, they would have a tremendous international reaction. So instead they’re going after people in the middle. It’s a form of state terror.”

Kari Lyderson of Alternet has more (via who else?) And Adrienne on the murder of journalist Giorgino
Orellana.

Also, Maria Soledad translated Dr. Juan Almendares on genocide. And, via Adrienne, Hermano Juancito on priestly support for Fr. Ismael Moreno, who has been threatened. And Adrienne on Americas Quarterly’s brainlessness. And also on Daniel Altschuler’s brainlessness.

Via Adrienne, Annie Bird and Karen Spring of Rights Action: Anti-mining activist Carlos Amador is threatened for protesting against Canadian landscape poisoner Goldcorp’s subsidiary, Entre Mares:

On April 13, 2010, 15 armed police arrived at the middle school where Carlos Amador, a teacher and founding member of the Siria Valley Environmental Committee, works. They approached the school with guns raised in attack position.

When they were unable to find Carlos, the police next went to his house which they also approached with raised guns and interrogated his two minor daughters as to his whereabouts.

It’s for reasons like this that I refuse to buy physical gold and limit my investments in shares to avoid the worst mining companies.

Adrienne on TV!

Pretendisent Lobo goes to Spain (from Merco Press). Adrienne gets accurately quoted by Freddy Cuevas and Martha Mendoza of AP on Llorens’ attempt to blame Zelaya for the coup. They would have done better to publish her whole letter, but the article as a whole is entirely satisfactory.

State Dept, 4/28:

Assistant Secretary Valenzuela will lead the U.S. delegation to Panama for the U.S.-SICA[1]Dialogue. In Panama, he will also meet with President Ricardo Martinelli, Vice President and Foreign Minister Juan Carlos Varela, and with representatives from civil society, academia, and the private sector.
###
[1] 1. SICA is the Spanish-language acronym for the Central American Integration System. SICA member states include Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. The Dominican Republic is an associate member state and Mexico is an observer state to SICA.

More State Dept.:

Later on this afternoon [4/28], the Secretary will meet with Foreign Minister Canahuati of Honduras and will exchange views on – updating on progress in Honduras and areas of mutual concern including citizen safety, human rights, and the ongoing work on reconciliation following last year’s coup d’état. We look forward to the May 4 launch of the truth commission which fulfills a key element set forth in the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord. But the Secretary will also express her concern about citizen safety, including the safety of journalists who have been targets of violence and intimidation in recent months.

And even more State Dept, 4/28:

SECRETARY CLINTON: I want to welcome the foreign minister of Honduras here today. He’s been in Washington holding a series of meetings with a number of officials both from our government and others as well. And I’m looking forward to my conversation with him.

As I have said on numerous occasions, I think that the steps that President Lobo and his government have taken deserve our support, and we want to work with the government and the people of Honduras to get them back fully on the path of democracy, the rule of law, good governance. I had a long conversation a few weeks ago with President Lobo about his plans to try to improve the standard of living and the quality of life of the Honduran people, to deal with the drug trafficking and the crime that stalks all of Central America.

More later in the week.

The Republican War On Reality: Virginia Edition

Not content with seeing Arizona walk off with the title of Most Batshit Crazy State, an honor that up to now has largely been reserved for states of the former Confederacy, Virgina’s Republicans have moved to reclaim the Stainless Banner from those pesky Western upstarts. Their new state Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, is leading the charge, with not one but three asinine acts in row.

Asinine Act #1: Fear the Boobie! From the Virginian-Pilot (h/t PZ Myers):

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli apparently isn’t fond of wardrobe malfunctions, even when Virginia’s state seal is involved.

The seal depicts the Roman goddess Virtus, or virtue, wearing a blue tunic draped over one shoulder, her left breast exposed. But on the new lapel pins Cuccinelli recently handed out to his staff, Virtus’ bosom is covered by an armored breastplate.

When the new design came up at a staff meeting, workers in attendance said Cuccinelli joked that it converts a risqué image into a PG one.

The joke might be on him, said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

“When you ask to be ridiculed, it usually happens. And it will happen here, nationally,” he said. “This is classical art, for goodness’ sake.”

Asinine Act #2: Open Season on Gays! From that same V-P article:

It wouldn’t be the first time that Cuccinelli has found himself in a punch line since taking office. The conservative Republican made Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” in March after he advised state colleges and universities they lack the legal authority to protect gay employees from discrimination.

“You can’t be gay in college?” host Jon Stewart asked in mock disbelief. “That’s the whole point of going to college!”

Asinine Act #3: Open Season on Scientists! Cuccinelli apparently wants to use a SLAPP to shut down climate studies in Virginia:

No one can accuse Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli of shying from controversy. In his first four months in office, Cuccinelli directed public universities to remove sexual orientation from their anti-discrimination policies, attacked the Environmental Protection Agency, and filed a lawsuit challenging federal health care reform. Now, it appears, he may be preparing a legal assault on an embattled proponent of global warming theory who used to teach at the University of Virginia, Michael Mann.

In papers sent to UVA April 23, Cuccinelli’s office commands the university to produce a sweeping swath of documents relating to Mann’s receipt of nearly half a million dollars in state grant-funded climate research conducted while Mann— now director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State— was at UVA between 1999 and 2005.

If Cuccinelli succeeds in finding a smoking gun like the purloined emails that led to the international scandal dubbed Climategate, Cuccinelli could seek the return of all the research money, legal fees, and trebled damages.

I’m waiting for him to announce John Wilkes Booth Day soon. You know he’s thinking about it.