Mercury Rising 鳯女

Politics, life, and other things that matter

Somebody Apparently Wants To See The Iraqi Shiite Truce With US Forces Meet A Bloody End

Posted by Phoenix Woman on June 12, 2010

Because that’s what would happen if Israel and the (ultra-Sunni) Saudis were allowed to go ahead with this really stupid move:

“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defence source in the area. “They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.”

Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defence circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “We all know this. We will let them [the Israelis] through and see nothing,” said one.

[…]

Passing over Iraq would require at least tacit agreement to the raid from Washington. So far, the Obama Administration has refused to give its approval as it pursues a diplomatic solution to curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Military analysts say Israel has held back only because of this failure to secure consensus from America and Arab states.

Ai-yi-yi.

7 Responses to “Somebody Apparently Wants To See The Iraqi Shiite Truce With US Forces Meet A Bloody End”

  1. Charles II said

    And of course, if Israel attacks using Saudi airspace, the major retaliation will be against Saudi Arabia, drawing the US into the conflict.

    The world is gone mad.

  2. Stormcrow said

    Read the original piece carefully.

    Who is the source?

    Sources in Saudi Arabia …

    “Sources” who are never mentioned by name.

    Every time I see something outrageous about Iran and its nuclear program in print, from a “source” the news agency declines to identify, something in the back of my head says “Mossad disinformation”.

    • Charles II said

      The story does cite “a US defence source”. That’s very vague, but it still implies a US contractor or a member of the military. I suppose it could also be an Israeli defense attache stationed in the US, but that seems less likely.

      But the publicizing of this narrative is interesting. It’s plainly a threat to Iran, whether from the US, from Israel, or even from Saudi Arabia. Disinformation to keep them nervous? Dust in the world’s eyes to take the focus off Gaza? Or a real threat? One can’t really tell from this story.

      But there’s something odd about the story. The shortest distance from Israel to central or northern Iran (Natanz, Esfahan and Qom, the stated primary targest) looks like it is via Iraqi airspace. 962 miles from Jerusalem to Teheran. If instead one draws it through Kuwait (which includes a path through northern Saudi Arabia), it’s 1267 miles. So, something’s funny about the story. Unless they’re starting from Jordanian bases?

  3. Stormcrow said

    Ah.

    One of Pat Lang’s commenters just reminded me that the Times of London is owned by Rupert Murdoch.

    My bullshit detector is now reading well up into the “raw sewage” range.

  4. Stormcrow said

    And now we have the official Saudi denial: Saudi Arabia: We will not give Israel air corridor for Iran strike

    Saudi Arabia would not allow Israeli bombers to pass through its airspace en route to a possible strike of Iran’s nuclear facilities, a member of the Saudi royal family said Saturday, denying an earlier Times of London report.

    Earlier Saturday, the Times reported that Saudi Arabia has practiced standing down its anti-aircraft systems to allow Israeli warplanes passage on their way to attack Iran’s nuclear installations, adding that the Saudis have allocated a narrow corridor of airspace in the north of the country.

    Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi envoy to the U.K. speaking to the London-based Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, denied that report, saying such a move “would be against the policy adopted and followed by the Kingdom.”

    According to Asharq al-Awsat report, bin Nawaf reiterated the Saudi Arabia’s rejection of any violation of its territories or airspace, adding that it would be “illogical to allow the Israeli occupying force, with whom Saudi Arabia has no relations whatsoever, to use its land and airspace.”

    Note that in this piece, the source is mentioned by name.

    • Charles II said

      It’s not quite a denial, Stormcrow. “against the policy” and “illogical” is not quite identical to “Na ga ha pin”

      The story you link does give another interesting tidbit: “An attack would likely involve several waves of aircraft, possibly crossing Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia and Iraq.” Now, first, I would bet Iran has plenty of eyes and ears in Jordan. Second, Queen Rania just denounced Israel in strikingly harsh terms, calling Gaza an open air prison. I would guess that statement was officially cleared. And then there’s the question of whether Jordan, a country that tries to steer a path between west and east, would really want to be blamed for an attack on an Islamic state. One can guess where Al Qaida and Hezbollah would hold their Reconciliation Reunion.

    • I’m thinking it’s a Sy Hersh style special — in other words, that there have been talks between the KSA and Israel and the US, but that somebody in one of these camps decided to try and put a stop to it all by springing the news early, thus forcing the Saudis to strenuously deny it.

      Thing is, this isn’t exactly implausible: The Saudis are extreme Sunnis, whereas Iran is majority Shia. Plus, the Israelis have dealt with plenty of “sworn enemies” under the table over the decades — the sale of billions in weapons to Iran leaps most readily to mind — so it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they were confabbing with the KSA.

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