Mercury Rising 鳯女

Politics, life, and other things that matter

Is that a polar wind I feel?

Posted by Charles II on August 25, 2010

The last couple of days have brought some very chilly forecasts from financial analysts.

Polar bear David Rosenberg says we’re in a depression, and doesn’t see an end in sight.

Nouriel Roubini, who has been stuck with the nickname Dr. Doom despite his reputed facility in rounding up lovely young ladies for merriment says there’s a 40% chance the S&P will end the year at 843. That would be a 20% drop from here, and about 35% off the April highs. He gives a 50% chance that the market will end unchanged for the year, up about 7% from here.

How long will people hold stocks if there’s only a 10% chance they’ll go up?

2 Responses to “Is that a polar wind I feel?”

  1. jo6pac said

    Is that number 843 wrong, I can see 6500/7500 but if it’s 843 then I don’t have enough rice, beans, and bullets?

    Yes it will be a strange end of the year for ws but with no one buying then there little reason to invest in the future is there. Will we slip into in a deeper deflationary period of time and then into something like Chile in the late 60s and the rest of SA in the 70s. I sure hope not but there doesn’t seem to be much thought on the subject in the belt way or ws. They just don’t like us little people. Sad it came to this.

    • Charles II said

      It’s an S&P level, Jo. Dow would be roughly ten times that. I don’t follow the Dow because the changes in membership due to previous over representation by financial entities distorted the statistics.

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