Markets look to be headed lower/updated
Posted by Charles II on August 8, 2011
10:30 PM Eastern. Asia following though on the crash in US markets. Japan off 4.4%, Hong Kong off 7.2%, Shanghai off 2.6%. US futures look to be off roughly 3%. Europe futures look to be off 3-5%. But of course it’s early!
The one good thing? There’s no news, and very likely none until Thursday.
Update 9:20AM Tuesday: looks like a bounce, at least early on. FTSE put in a (probably temporary) bottom.
Update, 10:20: Definitely a bounce, very broad based. CNBC seems to think the markets are hoping that the Fed will bail them out. John Carney:
The big risk in the Fed’s statement today is to the downside. If the Fed doesn’t impress markets with a strong statement, it’s likely that markets will react with a vicious sell off.
Good luck with that, guys! After the trashing the Fed has taken from the right, and given that the Board has swung far right, Na Ga Ha Pin. IMHO, of course.
The S&P500 may stabilize around current levels of 1,120-25. If and when that gets violated, the next logical area to test will be near 1,030 — another 10% down from here.
Today’s market action is in large part a reaction to the wildly oversold condition. The assumption is this will be a bounce for days or weeks, than we will see a resumption of the selling until we make a sustainable low.
Update, 12:31 PM: Setting up for another leg down, or just breathless waiting for the Fed? Stalled at 1150. Volume has evaporated, but MACD still positive.
Update: 2:20 PM: Ooh. They really hated what the Fed said. No free candy! So, the market sulks into negative territory.
Update: 3:40PM: Temporary bottom formed around 1115, market solidly up. A bounce up as far as 1280 looks (technically) possible over the course of a week. In that week, however, there will be some more bad news, I suspect, so I wouldn’t bet on more than some wobbling until the next major news.
Headline for the day: Fed saves the universe!
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