And where she stops, nobody knows
Posted by Charles II on May 21, 2012
Odds look like a short term bounce for the market, with the market wildly “oversold” (translation: it usually doesn’t fall this quickly, but of course it would if people were scared) Asia green in most places at this hour (Asia often seems to lead movements in the US markets). Technicals (which are, of course, nonsense) suggest support in the 1280/1300 region. If a reversal occurs here, this would represent just a bare correction. Stronger support at 1140. VIX is at 25, up from 15 a month ago. It hit 43 last summer.
In the real news, the main concerns are for China having a hard landing. They are deferring or simply breaking contracts for coal and copper. Calculated Risk thinks (as of February, reiterated recently) that the news on US housing is likely to be good and Bondad’s co-blogger NDD says US indicators are generally cheery. The reality of how messy a Greek exit would be is sinking in, with elections a month off. Maybe even Merkel will get a clue one of these days, though the Chinese are giving her a run for the money in general cluelessness.
If you are asking me where things are going, I haven’t a clue. Somewhere between zero and a million, for sure.
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