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Archive for June 5th, 2012

Exit Poll: 53% of Walker Voters Back Obama

Posted by Phoenix Woman on June 5, 2012

It’s been all over the TV, and was mentioned here: Exit polls showed that 53% of Walker voters back Obama.

In other words, what I’d been hearing from some Sconnie friends is true: There are a lot of Wisconsinites of all parties who dislike recalls done for anything but criminal convictions and the like, or to redress a perceived imbalance (as happened when Wisconsin voters recalled enough Republican state senators to make the chamber even-steven). Anything that seems like mere political payback simply won’t fly.

So while the Republicans and their local and national media helpers will try to spin this as an anti-Obama vote, it was actually an anti-‘frivolous’-recall vote.

UPDATE: Elsewhere, I’ve used the term “recall resentment” to describe the force that enabled Scott Walker to survive the recall vote. Here’s what I mean by “recall resentment”:

Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters in today’s recall election say recall elections are only appropriate for official misconduct, according to early CBS News exit polls. Twenty-eight percent said they think they are suitable for any reason, while nine percent think they are never appropriate.

My Wisconsin friends had hinted this might happen: Essentially, a lot of them saw this second batch of recalls — which happened fifteen months after the first, when Walker’s betrayals were still fresh in everyone’s mind and people hadn’t got used to having him in power — as more political revenge/payback than a righteous effort to remove a guy unfit for office.

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A lesson for progressives from Wisconsin/corrected and updated

Posted by Charles II on June 5, 2012

The results are still coming in, but it looks as though Walker has retained his seat. Given that Republicans vote lockstep, Kleefisch is almost guaranteed election.

Now, this is beyond disappointing. It’s devastating. The Democrats will point to the 8:1 advantage in funding that Walker had, and that’s unquestionably important. [Chris Cilizza says that some Democrats also blame the multi-candidate primary]. He also says that, “Walker is a damn good campaigner”. Since what I witnessed from Barrett was certainly adequate but not something that would energize me, maybe my assessment of him as a candidate is too weak.

But the early numbers suggest to me that Democrats did not even get a third of the people who signed the recall petition to vote, while Republicans got most Party members/Republican leaners to vote [final numbers show that Barrett did turn out 200,000 more voters than signed the recall petition]. Only 33% of union households even voted [This is incorrect. crosstabs show that 33% of voters were from union households, but that 38% voted for Walker. This seems at odds with the WaPo report that people who were in union households but not union members split almost evenly]. Many people who intend to vote for Obama voted for Walker. Independents almost certainly swung the race. We’ll have to see what the crosstabs say. Me, I think Barrett was the wrong candidate, but he was the only one with the name recognition to have a chance in a four week campaign. And the failure of Obama to campaign for Barrett was a major, major misstep.

The lesson that I hope lefties are taking home is that the masses are not just waiting for a revolution, and that grassroots politics is not enough unless your grassroots reach everywhere, especially into independent households. The electronic propaganda smog makes a huge difference, and will right up until the moment when people are out on the streets and can no longer watch/listen.

This is why Democrats care so little about their liberal base. That base makes up a declining fraction of contributions (thanks to the destruction of the middle class) and a not very important part of the electorate, because they are failing to connect with the broader population. This is sad because liberal policy, especially economic policy, is generally pretty sensible. But great ideas go nowhere unless they have a good sales pitch.

It’s a bad day for the United States of America. But maybe we can learn from this.

Finally, I am now less convinced that Walker will be indicted. Prosecutors (outside of Alabama and a few other choice locations) don’t let politics dictate who they indict, but they would hesitate to prosecute a man who has just been re-elected. The judicial branch is supposed to stay clear of meddling in elections. Most people in that branch, even pretty conservative ones, are careful in that regard.

Via ks, at Sideshow, Matt Stoller at Naked Capitalism thinks that the problem is that people are simply not drawn to centrists like Barrett. Where I differ from him is that progressives had a chance in their primary to nominate a true progressive, and they did not. And this pattern has repeated in district after district. Ilya Sheyman. Eric Griego.

Blaming Obama is a nice, easy, persuasive answer that happens to be rather obviously wrong. Blame the lack of fire among Democrats, but don’t single Obama out as being the sole cause.

Posted in Election Day | 4 Comments »

Governor Mahlon Mitchell? It Could Happen.

Posted by Phoenix Woman on June 5, 2012

As Charles noted yesterday, Scott Walker, should he actually survive today’s recall, is not exactly out of the woods — he has looming legal threats that could soon force him out of office regardless of the tens of millions spent by his billionaire pals like Ms. Diane “I paid no taxes, neener neener” Hendricks.

Let’s presume he leaps out of the recall frying pan, only to land in the indictment fire. Who replaces him? His lieutenant governor, the supremely wingnutty Rebecca Kleefisch — unless, that is, she doesn’t survive her own recall election.

That’s right, folks — She’s facing a recall vote, too. Her Democratic challenger? Firefighter Mahlon Mitchell, president of the Professional Firefighters of Wisconsin.

If by some chance Walker survives the recall election but Kleefisch doesn’t, Walker could be faced with the prospect of not just a Democratic-controlled Senate, but a Democratic lieutenant governor as well. And if in this case Walker winds up resigning his post, we’ll be looking at Governor Mahlon Mitchell.

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