Why 2014 Will Be A Great Year
Posted by Phoenix Woman on November 20, 2013
I am laying down a marker, here and now.
At this time next year, a number of allegedly-doomed Democrats will find themselves on Capitol Hill. The Senate will stay in Democratic hands. We probably won’t get the House — probably — but we will make inroads.
Why? Two things: The relative withdrawal of traditional GOP money from the 2014 races (and the corresponding amping-up of Koch Tea Party money), and Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo.
Let’s deal with the first thing first.
The conventional Republican donor groups have been watching with growing alarm at each Republican misstep of the past three years. First off, while 2010 cost the Democrats the House, the Tea Party ensured they would keep the Senate. 2012 saw the Democrats gain a few seats in both chambers: two in the Senate, eight in the House. With all the money that flooded GOP coffers, far better results were expected.
The shutdown of last month, followed by the Democratic sweep of the top offices in the Virginia governor’s race, was apparently the last straw: The conventional big GOP donors are holding back the cash. The problem for them (and the GOP) is, it’s allowing the Kochs to rush into the opening as an AP article notes:
But for now, establishment-minded groups such as Crossroads have been slow to act, and their absence has caught the tea party’s attention. It’s using the vacuum to strengthen its influence while recruiting like-minded candidates.
“Establishment donors are unhappy. They spent a lot of money and didn’t do well,” said Sal Russo, the Tea Party Express political director.
“We’ve been busy,” he added, noting that his organization has interviewed more than 60 candidates this year across 17 states.
The tug of war between such groups isn’t helping Republicans unify around strong candidates.
No kidding. It’s giving Democrats a breathing space and the chance to build up their own warchests before needing to spend out of them in 2014.
And there’s also the problem that the Tea Party crowd can spend till the cows come home and still screw the pooch:
Iowa’s Senate contest should be a promising pickup opportunity for Republicans. But some candidates in the crowded field have little proven campaign experience.
Outside spending can be helpful but doesn’t always mean success.
Americans for Prosperity, a group backed by the conservative billionaire Koch brothers, saturated Iowa mailboxes and telephone lines recently to support conservative city council candidates. But they all lost.
On top of all that is this:
Polls, even the latest WaPo poll, still show that the public don’t want Obamacare repealed, they want it fixed. It’s why they really didn’t like the GOP shutdown, which was all about trying to kill Obamacare. They may not have been crazy about Obamacare, but they really weren’t — and still aren’t — fond of the GOP’s efforts to kill it.
In less than a month, December 13, the budget committee has to submit something to the rest of Congress in order to have a shot at getting their budgetary ducks in a row — and guess what, nothing’s happened nor will it happen, because the Suicide Caucus wants this reprise of their failed shutdown even if Boehner and McConnell don’t.
In less than two months, January 15, just as the legislative branch gets ready to hit the campaign trail, the GOP’s Suicide Caucus is going to do Shutdown 2: Electric Boogaloo. And that’s going to suck up all the media oxygen for the months of January, February and possibly even March. Congresscritters are going to be staked out like goats to Capitol Hill when they want to be back in their own districts fundraising — and in many cases the Republicans are going to be fighting off challengers backed by their fellow Republicans, the ones in the ultra-safe gerrymandered districts that make up the Suicide Caucus.
And if the Tea Party can win a large enough number of GOP primaries, it’s likely to ensure that the Democrats keep the Senate. It won’t be enough to cough up the House — they’d have to really screw the pooch for that to happen — but there likely will be a few losses.
There you go. That’s my marker.
You read it here first.
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