You can fool lots of the people…
Posted by Charles II on July 3, 2015
Nick Fletcher and Julia Kollewe, The Guardian liveblog:
Another opinion poll, from the Proto Thema website, shows the ‘Yes’ camp at 41.7% while the ‘No’ camp is at 41.1% and 10.7% are undecided.
100 researchers from the European University Institute have come out in support of the ‘No’ camp in Greece. The institute is an international postgraduate and post-doctoral teaching and research institute set up by European Union member states.
Oxford Economics says:
Whatever the referendum outcome, the ECB is unlikely to significantly increase ELA [emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks] limits any time soon.
Economists at Société Générale say:
A ‘Yes’ vote: a semi-stable outcome at best.
A ‘Yes’ vote would allow negotiations to resume on the basis of the late June proposals. However, early elections or an unstable coalition would also follow a ‘Yes’ vote. And given the time and complexity entailed by a new programme, the third Greek bailout (worth between €60-80bn in our opinion) is unlikely to be approved before late August. As a result, Greece is set to default on its ECB debt repayments (both in July and August).
At least half a million Greeks are unable to vote in the referendum – unless they return to the country before Sunday’s poll. Under Greek law, people must travel home to where they are registered for voting.
Since the 2007-08 financial crisis, 405,666 Greeks have left the country, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office.
It’s appalling that over half the population is going to vote to accede to the Troika’s demands or is still undecided (and therefore, IMO, likely to vote from fear of the unknown rather than experience). If Tsipras fails to get his OXI (No) vote–despite the clear warnings from economists of all stripes that a Yes vote merely delays the inevitable by a few months–he will resign and leave Greece in the hands of the incompetents and the corrupt who got Greece into this mess.
One wishes that this would not prove to be yet another Greek tragedy. But there are only a few hours for public opinion to turn.
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