Slowing job, wage growth may signal a top
Posted by Charles II on December 4, 2015
…This was actually a mixed report, with some good positives and some nasty negatives.The positives, in addition to the headline jobs number, included substantial upward revisions in hours and jobs to last month.…The negatives were first and foremost, wages, which after inflation, probably declined in November…..My biggest fear is that in the next recession, this will actually go negative, i.e., there will be outright wage deflation. … The YoY change in job growth continues to decelerate from its peak a year ago, continuing to signal that we are later in the economic expansion.
This will presumably be enough for the Fed to raise rates, the lack of wage-push inflation be damned. Hopefully they won’t drive the economy into a new recession next year. .
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