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Posts Tagged ‘Iowa’

Ted Cruz: Trump with a Ground Game

Posted by Phoenix Woman on January 2, 2016

Lost in all the noise about Trump is the fact that Trump’s views differ only in tone from those of his fellow Republican rivals. When even alleged “moderates” like Jeb Bush holler about “anchor babies”, an intelligent and educated oberver cannot with a straight face state that Trump is not the face of the GOP.

Consider, if you will, one Rafael Edward “Ted” Cruz. He is, for all intents and purposes, Donald Trump with a ground game.

As the redoubtable “brooklynbadboy” states in the comments thread:

I was commenting on Cruz rapidly emerging organizational prowess long before the beltway media got wind of it or before he began moving in the polls. Plus, when he would discuss his theory of the campaign terrain in public, his analysis seemed to me the most closest to correct. That means he’s looking very clear-eyed at the campaign and is positioning himself based on that. That says to me “DATA AND ANALYTICS” and when I went through all their announcements of hirings and then looked into THOSE people…I said to myself haha…here’s a guy who knows what the fuck he’s doing. He’s been planning this a long, long time to get these people on board.

Then I started reading about his wife. Aha. Then things started coming together. Here is a powerful, dynamic woman who knows what she wants and by god, she’s going to get it. I like that. You can’t elect a president without a strong spouse.

So when I started fitting the pieces together, looking back and the things Cruz has done in Washington, putting the pieces together one by one, peering into his connections and his carefully orchestrated moves…well there you are.

Now, what I didn’t predict was the total collapse of Bush. Because I expected Bush to be able to destroy him. Nor did I predict the rise of Trump, whom I never expected to be taken seriously. So with Bush defeated, Trump not sustainable due to lack of organization, the way is wide open for Cruz.

And that tells me something as well…he’s got some LUCK on his side.

So who are the people quietly working on Cruz’ team? Over in another comments thread, Triple-B gives us a list:

Cruz’s campaign manager is Jeff Roe out of Kansas City. He helped Huckabee win Iowa in 2008 before Huck’s lack of cash led to his rapid demise. Roe is experienced with many statewide races, including in swing states. He’s elected 4 senators including Cruz. He’s very much a hard worker type…stays out of camerashot. Reminds me a lot of Plouffe. Just very…head down, do the work, shut up. Like the opposite of the Sanders people who talk more to the media than the candidate.

Often next to Cruz, basically anywhere he goes, youll see a tall young bald guy. That’s Jason Johnson. He’s a Texas guy. Been with Cruz since Cruz was working for now Governor Greg Abbott. He is ruthless and very smart.

Some folks have read about his young digital outreach guy Josh Perry who, like the others, stays out of the limelight as much as possible. But the real guys you need to know about are the “two chrisses” Chris Wilson and Chris Perkins. These guys are the ones that scooped most of the young talent from Rick Perry’s data nerds whom Sasha Issenberg wrote about in “The Victory Lab.”

He’s got a good solid young team, very Texas, not Washington based. They have experience in a variety of electoral environments, have all worked together before and all seem to have the greatly desired ability to shut up and let the candidate do the talking.

Like I said: Trump with a ground game.

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The Republicans’ Enthusiasm Gap

Posted by Phoenix Woman on February 1, 2012

I’ve been trying to gauge relative voter enthusiasm by comparing 2012 primary and caucus results to those of 2008, on the idea that the more folks who turn out for the early primaries, the ones that decide the end result months in advance, are the key ones to watch as the motivation factor to participate will be higher in those than in the primaries held after them.

Up to this point — aside from South Carolina which was the Tea Party’s Last Hurrah, hence the huge TheoCon turnout which disproportionately benefited Newt — turnout’s been similar to 2008, especially when you take population growth into account. But then we came to Florida, and Florida’s GOP turnout this year was much lower than four years ago: 1,663,698 to 2008’s 1,949,498, or nearly 300,000 less.

I believe this means that while the Republican’s Tea-Party/Bircher base may have grudgingly accepted Romney as the only Republican who stands a chance against Obama this year, the operative word here is “grudgingly”. This was an incredibly hard-fought state — Romney needed Florida’s winner-take-all system to put a stake through Newt’s heart, which is why he outspent Newt there by a five-to-one margin — and if there really was the huge “dump Obama” fervor the GOP/Media Complex says exists, one would expect turnout to have been much higher than in 2008. Instead, the opposite happened, and there was a fifteen percent drop in turnout from 2008.

From now on, the rest of the primary schedule will have a decreasing amount of relevance aside from padding Mitt’s delegate totals. Money that was either on the sidelines or committed to other candidates will now start flowing Mitt’s way, and he’s going to need it: He outspent Santorum by nearly 100-to-1 in Iowa and still lost by a hairsbreadth, he outspent Gingrich by over two-to-one in South Carolina and got beaten like a gong, and he had to pull out all the stops and outspend Newt by five-to-one to beat him in Florida. His easiest win was in New Hampshire, where he had the advantage of being the only New Englander in the race, and even there he still had to spend over $10 million.

David Paul Kuhn of the Republican-run RealClearPolitics addresses the Republicans’ enthusiam gap in a roundabout way, asking: “Will Romney’s Strengths Prove Moot Against Obama?” Well, when even the Republican stalwart Scott Rasmussen’s polling shows Obama beating Romney by four percentage points in the general, I suspect that the answer is “no”.

Why is this? A number of reasons have been advanced, one of them being anti-Mormon prejudice, but I suspect that another factor is this: Having Romney as the nominee would mean that the Republicans’ biggest weapon to date against Obama and the Democrats — the unpopularity of the Affordable Care Act — is now permanently neutralized, as the ACA is in essence a national version of the “Romneycare” that Mitt introduced in Massachusetts, and too many Republicans are all too aware of this.

If Romney is ever foolish enough to criticize the ACA during any of his debates with Obama, all Obama has to do is tell the stark truth: “Funny you should say that, Governor, as we used your Romneycare plan as a model for the Affordable Care Act.”

Posted in 2008, 2012, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

South Carolina GOP Primary Turnouts, 2008 and 2012

Posted by Phoenix Woman on January 22, 2012

While the 2012 Republican caucus and primary turnouts in Iowa and New Hampshire (121,503 and 248,485, respectively) weren’t substantially different from 2008 (119,188 and 234,851 respectively), particularly considering the population growth in both states over the past four years, South Carolina’s 2012 turnout — 600,421 with 99.5% of precincts reporting — is markedly higher, nearly 155,000 more than in 2008.

My take is that this was the result of the TheoCons (UPDATE: What I for a long time have been calling “the religio-racist right”) pulling out all the stops to keep Romney from sailing unimpeded to the nomination.

Next up: Florida, which could, if Newt wins it, lead to the mother of all brokered conventions.

(Crossposted to MyFDL.)

Posted in 2008, 2012, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Bachmann’s Iowa Chair Defects To Ron Paul’s Campaign

Posted by Phoenix Woman on December 28, 2011

Right after he appeared with Bachmann at a 4 o’clock afternoon campaign stop in Indianola, state senator Kent Sorenson, Bachmann’s Iowa campaign chair, defects to the Ron Paul campaign.

This is fantastically good news for Ron Paul. If he can Hoover up even a quarter of Bachmann’s Iowa supporters, he beats Romney easily. Mitt’s going to have to go into fricking overdrive now — I expect to see him dump another $10 million in ads in the next few days.

Here’s the press release announcing this news: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , | 5 Comments »

GOP Lies About Everything: Michele Bachmann Family Edition

Posted by Phoenix Woman on April 13, 2011

Welcome to yet another episode of “If a Democrat did this his or her career would be toast”:

Bachmann, who’s flirting with a presidential run, was in the early-primary state of Iowa last week for the Rediscover God in America conference. Bachmann was born in Iowa, as she told the crowd. But she couldn’t leave it at just being an ordinary Iowan:

“I’m actually even more than just an Iowan,” she told her audience. “I’m a seventh-generation Iowan. Our family goes back to the 1850s, to the first pioneers that came to Iowa from Sognfjord, Norway.”

And from there, Bachmann was off and running, spinning an American story about her ancestors, Melchior and Martha Munson, who braved a 13-week ocean passage to Quebec and from there trekked overland to carve a homestead out of the wilderness of Iowa, felling trees and building a better life for themselves on the frontier.

Unfortunately, the story doesn’t hold water, as researcher Chris Rodda ably points out at OpEdNews.

How off is Bachmann’s revisionist history? Really off. As in really, really, really off:

Since Bachmann said her great-great-great grandparents, whose names she provided, emigrated from Norway to Iowa in the 1850s, I searched the 1860 federal census for them. I started by searching for a Melchior Munson in Iowa, but came up empty. But, since unfamiliar foreign first names like Melchior were often misspelled or Americanized when written down by census workers, I didn’t think it was unusual not to find him on the first shot. So I tried Martha Munson, Melchior’s wife, since Martha was a common name that wouldn’t be misspelled. Still nothing. So I broadened my search to include sound-alike last names for Munson, in case it was their last name that was misspelled. Still nothing. Giving my search one last shot, I removed all search parameters except the first name Martha and the last name Munson, including any sound-alike last names. It was only then that I found Melchior and Martha — but not in Iowa. They were in Wisconsin.(1) So, there went that part of Bachmann’s ‘Iowanizing’ of her family history. Her great-great-great grandparents hadn’t gone from Quebec to Iowa. They had settled in Wisconsin.

And what about all those hardships that Bachmann says her ancestors persevered through during their first few years in Iowa — the worst winter in fifty years, the worst flooding in forty-two years, the worst drought that anyone had ever recorded, and a plague of locusts to boot? Well, obviously, none of this happened in Iowa, because her ancestors weren’t in Iowa. And it didn’t happen in Wisconsin either. This all happened in the Dakota Territory. That’s where Melchoir and Martha Munson and their children were from 1861 to 1864.(2) Like many Norwegian immigrants who had settled in Wisconsin, the Munsons set out for the Dakota Territory once Congress made it a territory in 1861.

[…]

But it’s not just where these events occurred that Bachmann is lying about in her revisionist version of her “Iwegian” family history. According to Bachmann, her ancestors “kept going, and they persevered, and they were people of faith.” But did her faithful ancestors really persevere and keep going? Well, no. They were among the settlers written about in the History of southeastern Dakota who “abandoned the Territory for the purpose of making homes elsewhere.” That’s how Melchior and Martha Munson ended up in Iowa — seven years after they came to America. By the time the Munsons abandoned the Dakota Territory in 1864, there was a well established Norwegian community in Chickasaw County, Iowa, so that’s where they stopped and resettled. Clearly, Iowa was never the intended destination of Bachmann’s great-great-great grandfather and grandmother when they left Norway in 1857, as she claims.

Bachmann even fudges the number of generations from Melchior’s and Martha’s to her own: Depending on how (and who) you count, it could be as few as four or as many as six, but it’s not seven. Then again, considering she’s an adherent of the Christian nationalist revisionist history movement as espoused by David Barton and John Eidsmoe (aka “Liars for Jesus” as Rodda calls it), this shouldn’t be surprising.

(Crossposted to Renaissance Post.)

Posted in Michele Bachmann, Minnesota, Republicans, Republicans acting badly, Republicans as cancer | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

 
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