Chavez concedes narrow defeat of Venezuelan constitutional reforms

Added 12:40AM, Eastern:  Hugo Chavez, once again proving himself to be so much classier than his opponents, has conceded defeat in the reform of the Venezuelan constitution. The margin is so close (1.4%) that he thinks that the remaining ballots might win it for him, but he said that he didn’t want to put the country through an experience like the US in 2000. The country had indicated that it wasn’t enthusiastically for the reforms, so he would accept their verdict.

So, ok, anti-Chavistas, you keep saying he’s a totalitarian, but you’re still the people who do coups. You say he’s disloyal to the country, but you’re the ones who run to the American government when you don’t get the vote to go the way you want.  You have a much better president than you credit him for… and a much better president than the US has.

I am not at all sad to see these reforms go down. Maybe it will convince Chavez’s cohort that they need to start building leadership that can carry their movement after their leader has stepped down. ________________________________  

There’s an old joke about a football player, having a bad rookie season, being asked by the press: “Jim, coach says that your perfomance is so bad that it can only be ignorance or apathy. What do you say to that?”

And Jim replied, “Well, I don’t know and I don’t care.” 

Early reports (here and Radio Venezuela with English translation here) suggest that most many Venezuelans of all castes are simply ignoring the election. If there’s any sabotage or violence, it would be later in the day, when the opposition is planning to clog voting places (but probably would be unable to do so except in a few districts). There have been sixteen arrests.

Updates follow:

Update, 3:50 Eastern, from Radio Venezuela, Mike Fox reporting: Polls are near official closing time. Results will come out at 7PM Eastern. Voting remains light, though there was a late surge, which will keep the polls open later than the nominal closing time. The Chavistas express optimism.

Via the pro-government Aporrea, there is a complaint that the anti-reformists are distributing pamphlets inside of voting stations, conducting illegal exit polling, and buying votes.

Update, 4:05 Eastern, Radio Venezuela: At the largest polling place at Andres Bello Liceo, 65% of registered voters have voted. There’s a noisy demo by anti-reformists who want to witness the vote counting. There was a small group of pro-reformists. The gates of the polling place have been closed. There has been no violence.

Update, 5:45 Eastern, Radio Venezuela: At Andres Bello School (not the Liceo) in an affluent part of the city, there’s a small group of people. No official results, but exit polls published by El Mundo and other sources say that the reforms have been approved. 

El Mundo/Reuters says reforms approved by 6-8 points, with about 50% turnout.

Update, 6:40PM, Radio Venezuela: There have been reports of illegalities by the right-wing Podemos in Sucre; also the right-wing is making loud claims of fraud. Also, a report that some polling places were closed while people were in line. A student leader of the opposition is speaking, reaffirming their position but neither conceding defeat nor claiming victory.

Gregory Wilpert has a good analytical article explaining what the reforms mean and what they don’t mean. He says:

      Despite this rather depressing state of affairs for the opposition, Chavez handed the opposition yet another chance to redeem itself when he launched the constitutional reform. Chavez says that this move was necessary for the deepening of Venezuela’s socialist transformation, but, strictly speaking, many of these changes could have been made without the reform and those that could not, could have waited until 2012 for a more deliberate reform process than the one that took place.

     By rushing the reform process Chavez presented the opposition with a nearly unprecedented opportunity to deal him a serious blow.

Indeed, many centrists were alienated and Chavez has wounds to heal. However, he may have gambled that a constitutional change would make these changes irreversible.

Update, 7:00, Eastern. You can see  a picture of the lines at 9AM at Liceo Andres Bello, courtesy of Julia_1984, a member of the student opposition. Radio Venezuela: A student opposition leader is urging people to stay at the polls. Thirty percent of polls are just now closing. It will take two or three hours to count and then there’s an audit, so earliest results are more like 9-10 PM Eastern. The armed, violent group Trece in Merida arrived after poll closings and started crying “Fraud.”

Update, 10:55 Eastern: No news yet.