Iran: The Rollout
Posted by Charles II on September 4, 2007
Scott Horton has no doubts, but also no specifics:
Military commanders urged a draw-down to occur before the commencement of military operations against Iran. Bush is accepting this recommendation only because he has mentally committed to an aerial campaign against Iran. He will therefore follow the general’s advice to get soldiers out of harm’s way, off to positions which are more secure in the event of an Iranian counterattack.
Throughout the Gulf area, moves are underway at this moment which are consistent with preparation for an aerial assault on Iran. …
Bush and his core White House team have come to a key conclusion. The Iraq War is going very poorly. Time for a new war.
Barnett Rubin has an anonymous source:
In this conversation, someone whose proximity to knowledge of such things is so great that I cannot identify him in any other way, told my interlocutor that President Bush would be inclined to accept suggestions for withdrawing some troops from Iraq and moving as many as possible into more secure bases, as a safeguard against reprisals in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran.
Rubin also labels as a war rollout an article by Reuel Marc Gerecht in Newsweek, predicting grave Iranian provocations as Iran is “determined to sow chaos beyond its borders,” there not being enough chaos within its borders.
The US man in Iran gets a coveted post, which could potentially cause trouble for the Iranians in a time of crisis. Robert Tait, The Guardian:
One of Iran’s most illustrious [ed: i.e., corrupt but pro-Western] politicians, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, dramatically increased his influence yesterday by winning control of a powerful clerical body in a development that could change the course of the country’s leadership.
Mr Rafsanjani, a conservative pragmatist and former president, was elected head of the experts’ assembly after overcoming a determined rightwing effort to block him….
Mr Rafsanjani’s election sets him on course for a possible power struggle with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The assembly can dismiss the supreme leader – although this has never happened – and choose a new one.
3 Responses to “Iran: The Rollout”
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Mercury Rising 鳯女 
Eli said
Everyone loves that new-war smell.
jdmckay said
you’re calling Rafsanjani “US man in Iran”?
I love you’re blog, read it all the time. But I think that’s a poor mischaracterization.
Bushco may indeed prefer him, but wouldn’t everyone? Even Iraqi population has turned against Aminajad: besides his unproductive (to put it mildly) rhetoric, he was elected on populist themes which he has utterly failed to deliver… utterly.
IMO your wording suggest Rafssanjani is a Bushco flack, like so many others (Allawi). Nothing could be further from the truth.
Charles said
I’m glad you enjoy the blog, JDMcKay, and appreciate the comment, which is fair.
Iranian politics is unbelievably opaque. Rafsanjani, perhaps Iran’s richest man and a former president, is similarly hard to figure.
So, let’s begin by saying that there’s no hard evidence to prove precisely where Rafsanjani stands. It’s my interpretation, not established fact, that Rafsanjani is an agent of influence serving, among other things, American interests. I have some reasons to believe this:
1. Rafsanjani is reported by Robert Parry to have participated in The October Surprise.
2. Rafsanjani participated in Iran Contra.
3. The United States attempted to influence the last presidential election in Rafsanjani’s favor.
In addition, a war with the United States would be likely to threaten Rafsanjani’s business interests, weaken his empire, and coalesce public opinion around the ultraconservatives, freezing him out.
Is Rafsanjani pursuing his personal interests? American interests? Iranian interests? Some intersection of some or all of the above?
I don’t know. I do know that the US government attempted, disastrously, to intervene to his benefit in the last election. I can’t help but suspect that the web of relationships he developed during Iran Contra is assisting his unexpected return to power.
Added: Also, on a separate point, the Iranian people elected Ahmadinejad. He does not have any control over the military, so however flaky he may be, he does not in any way threaten the US. We are bound to respect the Iranian’s decision, however much we may disagree with it. The worst thing we could do in regards to diminishing Iranian radicalism is to try to control who their leaders are.